Boris Johnson would win a by-election in his Uxbridge and South Ruislip if one was held tomorrow, a pollster has suggested.
The former Prime Minister could be forced to face a vote in his London constituency under the worst-case scenario relating to the Privileges Committee inquiry into whether he lied to Parliament over Covid rule-breaking in No 10.
But new polling by Tory peer Lord Ashcroft shows Mr Johnson – who was forced out of No 10 last year following a series of scandals – is on course to win 50 percent of the vote in the seat he has held since 2015.
Labour’s Danny Beales on 33 percent, Lib Dem Blaise Baquiche is third on six percent and the Greens are on five percent.
The poll of 936 adults in Uxbridge and South Ruislip was carried out by telephone between May 18 and June 2.
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Lord Ashcroft conceded that constituency polls have “rather a mixed history” and that projections based on national trends suggest Labour is set to take the west London seat.
He also said a big-named candidate from a minor party such as the Greens or Reform UK could “change the game locally”.
Writing for Conservative Home, Lord Ashcroft said: “And who knows what else might happen in Boris World before any by-election comes to pass, if it does?”
But the pollster insisted there are “good reasons to accept the picture at face value”.
Lord Ashcroft said Mr Johnson – who led the Tories to a landslide majority in the 2019 general election – is “able to command extraordinary affection and loyalty”.
Referring to Mr Johnson stepping down from his Henley seat to be London Mayor, he added: “During the 2008 Henley by-election campaign, when I oversaw Conservative Party’s internal polling, one of our early concerns was that local voters might take umbrage at Johnson’s decision to leave them for his tilt at the London mayoralty – but not a bit of it.
“We had never come across such a popular MP and his soon-to-be former constituents wished their local hero nothing but success.
“That was in a very different era, of course – but 15 years later in Uxbridge, could it be that the more is thrown at Johnson, the more his voters want to rally around?”
If Mr Johnson fails to convince MPs on the Privileges Committee that he did not deliberately mislead the Commons, he could be found to have committed contempt of Parliament.
A suspension of more than 10 days could result in a risky by-election in his Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat.
The full House of Commons would vote on any recommendations.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has said he will let MPs make their own decisions “as individuals” if the Commons is asked to approve a punishment for his predecessor.
Meanwhile, there have been suggestions Mr Johnson will not try to defend the west London constituency and will seek a safer seat at the next general election, possibly Henley, the Tory stronghold he previously represented.
